0,83-82 80-79 USDCHF USDJPY

ong USD/CHF Taken @0.8350; Stop Only On Daily Close Below 0.8240
By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
06 June 2011 10:51 GMT
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The markets continue to react to the much softer than expected US NFP report from Friday, with the number still shocking even after investors had already been anticipating weakness following the earlier release of ADP. Despite the uptick in risk aversion on the back of this development, currencies have been very well bid across the board, with even the higher yielding commodity bloc finding renewed strength. The Franc and Yen have been very well bid, with UD/CHF to yet another fresh record low and USD/JPY threatening a move back below 80.00. Talk of QE3 has resurfaced and while the likelihood for another wave of monetary policy accommodation is unlikely at this point, the weakness in the US data has been enough to inspire some fresh bets on these prospects.

USD/JPY: After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00’s and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported by 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks.

Relative Performance Versus the USD on Monday (as of 10:30GMT)

1. JPY +0.36%
2. AUD +0.26%
3. NZD +0.22%
4. GBP -0.13%
5. EUR -0.14%
6. CAD -0.22%
7. CHF -0.41%

Fed Chair Bernanke is slated to speak on Tuesday and many will be watching to see whether any additional clarity will be offered on the matter. The Euro has most recently established back above 1.4600 with the single currency also finding some relative bids after the EU/IMF agreed to release the next tranche of bailout funds to Greece. Meanwhile, the Pound has been lagging a bit with the UK currency weighed down by its economies own soft data which includes weaker services and manufacturing PMIs and discouraging housing indicators. On the data front, the Eurozone Sentix was much softer than expected, hitting an 11-month low, and PPI for the euro-region came in slightly higher than expected but is showing signs that inflationary pressures are easing.

Looking ahead, the North American calendar is extremely light with Canadian data dominating proceedings, building permits (-7.5% expected) gets things underway at 12:30GMT followed by the Ivey PMI (60.0 expected) at 14:00GMT. Fed’s Fisher and Treasury’s Geithner are both slated to speak during US trade too. US stock futures are pointing to a flat open while commodities diverge with oil lower and gold higher.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Morning_slices_body_cal1.png, Long USD/CHF Taken @0.8350; Stop Only On Daily Close Below 0.8240

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Morning_slices_body_eur.png, Long USD/CHF Taken @0.8350; Stop Only On Daily Close Below 0.8240

EUR/USD: The market is once again very well bid with the latest gains managing to accelerate beyond resistance in the lower 1.4500’s and into the 1.4600’s thus far. From here, we still retain an overall bearish bias, but would look for gains to potentially extend some more towards the 78.6% fib retrace off of the major 1.4940-1.3970 move by 1.4730 before considering the possibility for bearish resumption. Back below 1.4450 would now be required to relieve immediate topside pressures.

Morning_slices_body_jpy2.png, Long USD/CHF Taken @0.8350; Stop Only On Daily Close Below 0.8240

USD/JPY: After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00’s and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported by 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks.

Morning_slices_body_gbp2.png, Long USD/CHF Taken @0.8350; Stop Only On Daily Close Below 0.8240

GBP/USD: Rallies have been very well capped in the 1.6500’s with the market looking like it wants to carve out a fresh lower top by 1.6550 ahead of the next downside extension below 1.6060. A break back below 1.6285 will reaffirm outlook and accelerate declines, while only back above 1.6550 negates and gives reason for pause.

USD/CHF: (See Below)

FLOWS

Heavy M&A related buying in Gbp/Usd, seen in smaller size on Sterling crosses too. Momentum types leading sales in Eur/Jpy. Various European banks noted buying in Eur/Usd on behalf of rumoured Chinese diversification with real money and a semi-official name selling into rallies.

TRADE OF THE DAY

Morning_slices_body_tradeofday.png, Long USD/CHF Taken @0.8350; Stop Only On Daily Close Below 0.8240

USD/CHF: The latest sharp drop to fresh record lows into the 0.8300’s has been quite extreme with the market now violently oversold and in desperate need of a major corrective rebound at a minimum. It is not too often that daily, weekly and monthly charts are oversold at the same time, and in our opinion, the very bearish price action warns that a material reversal is imminent. Currencies have rallied impressively across the board against the USD over the past several days, and with this in mind, the USD already seems poised for a broader rebound. A break back above 0.8550 would be required at a minimum to officially alleviate short-term downside pressures, but we like the idea of anticipating even a minor bounce and playing the fresh long trade at current levels just off the recently established record lows by 0.8330. POSITION: LONG @0.8350 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP ONLY ON A DAILY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME) BELOW 0.8240.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, email jskruger@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.
06 June 2011 10:51 GMT
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A piacok továbbra is reagálnia kell a sokkal lágyabb, mint a várható amerikai NFP jelentése pénteken a száma is megdöbbentő még azután is, a befektetők már felkészülés gyengesége követően a korábbi kiadását ADP. Annak ellenére, hogy uptick a kockázatkerülés a hátán ezt a fejleményt, pénznemek nagyon jól ajánlatot az egész fórumon, még a magasabb hozamú nyersanyagárak blokk találni újbóli felemelkedésére. A Franc és a jen is nagyon jól ajánlatot, az UD / CHF, hogy még egy friss rekord alacsony és USD / JPY fenyegető irányába történő visszalépés, alacsonyabb 80,00. Beszélni QE3 már újra felbukkant, és bár a valószínűsége egy újabb hulláma a monetáris politika nem valószínű, ezen a ponton, a gyengeség az USA-ban adatot ahhoz, hogy inspirálja egy kis friss fogadás ezeket a potenciális ügyfeleket.

USD / JPY: Miután átesett a meglehetősen intenzív lehull a 85,50 területen néhány nap vissza, a piac úgy néz ki, hogy végre talált némi támogatást 80,00, AOS és lehet a folyamat elhagyását, valamilyen formában bázis. Keresse meg a kudarcokat, hogy továbbra is jól támogatja 80,00 csak egy közeli vissza alatti 79,50, hogy ok az aggodalomra. Innen látjuk a kockázatokat egy friss fejjel kiterjesztése vissza felé a közelmúltban számos magasságra a 85,50 az elkövetkező hetekben.

USD / CHF: A legújabb hirtelen friss rekord mélypontra történő 0,8300, AOS meglehetősen szélsőséges a piac most erőszakosan oversold és mindenképpen szükségük van egy jelentős korrekciós fellendülés legalább. Nem túl gyakran, hogy a napi, heti és havi diagramok oversold ugyanabban az időben, és a mi véleményünk, nagyon macis ár fellépés arra figyelmeztet, hogy egy anyag megfordítását küszöbön áll. Valuták gyülekeztek lenyűgözően egész fórumon USD-vel szembeni elmúlt néhány nap, és ezt szem előtt tartva, a dollár már úgy tűnik, lebeg a szélesebb visszapattan. A szünet vissza fölött 0,8550 lenne szükség legalább a hivatalosan enyhítése rövid távú negatív nyomás, de tetszik az ötlet felkészülés még egy kis ugrál és játszik a friss hosszú kereskedelem jelenlegi szinten csak le a nemrégiben felállított rekord mélypontra által 0,8330. BEOSZTÁS: LONG@0.8350 egy nyílt CÉLJA; STOP CSAK NAPI CLOSE (17:00 NY TIME) ALÁBBI 0,8240.


Átvétel: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/morning_slices/2011/06/06/Morning_slices.html